| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026 | #226 | Bethune-Cookman | 3-3 | 6 | @ UCF | 73 | W | UCF (-32.86) | 100% | 34.14 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | UCF | 7 | #59 | @ Pittsburgh | 5-2 | 12 | L | Pittsburgh (-11.36) | 0% | 6.36 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #91 | Georgia State | 4-2 | 30 | @ UCF | 44 | W | UCF (-15.50) | 100% | -1.50 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | #45 | TCU | 3-3 | 13 | ✓ | @ UCF | 21 | W | UCF (+1.71) | 100% | 9.71 | |||||
| 10/3/2026 | UCF | 17 | #16 | @ Houston | 6-1 | 27 | L | Houston (-7.44) | 0% | -2.56 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | UCF | 28 | #32 | @ Oklahoma State | 4-2 | 42 | L | Oklahoma State (-1.28) | 0% | -12.72 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #7 | BYU | 6-0 | @ UCF | L | UCF (+4.80) | 38% | |||||||||
| 10/30/2026 | #36 | Baylor | 4-2 | @ UCF | W | UCF (-0.48) | 51% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | UCF | #93 | @ Kansas | 2-4 | W | Kansas (+0.36) | 51% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | #89 | Arizona State | 3-3 | @ UCF | W | UCF (-10.32) | 74% | |||||||||
| 11/20/2026 | #43 | Iowa State | 3-3 | @ UCF | W | UCF (-2.64) | 57% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | UCF | #75 | @ Colorado | 2-4 | W | Colorado (+3.40) | 58% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 16-631.2% 27-528.1% 35-718.8% 48-413.0% 54-85.8% 69-32.4% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 2.4% | ||||||||||||||||