| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/30/2026 | Memphis | 27 | #82 | @ UNLV | 4-3 | 21 | W | UNLV (-0.44) | 100% | 6.44 | ||||||
| 9/5/2026 | #124 | Arkansas State | 3-4 | 24 | @ Memphis | 42 | W | Memphis (-16.73) | 100% | 1.27 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | Memphis | 20 | #20 | @ Boise State | 5-1 | 38 | L | Boise State (-6.28) | 0% | -11.72 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | #191 | UT Martin | 3-4 | 21 | @ Memphis | 45 | W | Memphis (-29.31) | 100% | -5.31 | ||||||
| 10/3/2026 | Memphis | 59 | #176 | @ Charlotte | 1-6 | 8 | W | Charlotte (+21.30) | 100% | 29.70 | ||||||
| 10/10/2026 | #106 | UAB | 4-3 | 13 | @ Memphis | 38 | W | Memphis (-19.57) | 100% | 5.43 | ||||||
| 10/16/2026 | Memphis | 17 | ✓ | #78 | @ Tulane | 3-3 | 31 | L | Tulane (+8.86) | 0% | -22.86 | |||||
| 10/22/2026 | #128 | East Carolina | 3-3 | @ Memphis | W | Memphis (-14.85) | 82% | |||||||||
| 10/31/2026 | #52 | Army | 4-2 | @ Memphis | W | Memphis (-4.68) | 61% | |||||||||
| 11/13/2026 | Memphis | #71 | @ South Florida | 5-2 | W | South Florida (+1.94) | 55% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | Memphis | #125 | @ Navy | 2-4 | W | Navy (+2.60) | 56% | |||||||||
| 11/27/2026 | #140 | Temple | 2-5 | @ Memphis | W | Memphis (-16.79) | 84% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 19-334.5% 28-433.9% 37-515.3% 410-213.1% 56-63.1% 65-70.2% Chance of winning all 5 remaining games: 13.1% | ||||||||||||||||