| Date | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Away Team | Record | Score | QB1 Out? |
Rank | Home Team | Record | Score | Neutral Site | Playoff Game | Outcome | Expected Outcome | Expected Probability |
Actual Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/5/2026 | #161 | Sam Houston | 1-5 | 21 | @ Troy | 24 | W | Troy (-15.97) | 100% | -12.97 | ||||||
| 9/12/2026 | #218 | Alabama State | 3-3 | 17 | @ Troy | 34 | W | Troy (-11.25) | 100% | 5.75 | ||||||
| 9/19/2026 | Troy | 17 | #31 | @ Missouri | 5-2 | 27 | L | Missouri (-22.31) | 0% | 12.31 | ||||||
| 9/26/2026 | Troy | 10 | #107 | @ Utah State | 2-4 | 21 | L | Utah State (-6.46) | 0% | -4.54 | ||||||
| 10/7/2026 | #189 | Southern Miss | 1-5 | 34 | @ Troy | 55 | W | Troy (-5.46) | 100% | 15.54 | ||||||
| 10/17/2026 | Troy | 6 | #54 | @ Louisiana | 5-2 | 33 | L | Louisiana (-5.06) | 0% | -21.94 | ||||||
| 10/24/2026 | #196 | UL Monroe | 0-6 | @ Troy | W | Troy (-12.38) | 78% | |||||||||
| 10/29/2026 | Troy | #26 | @ James Madison | 7-0 | L | James Madison (-23.42) | 9% | |||||||||
| 11/7/2026 | #51 | Louisiana Tech | 4-2 | @ Troy | L | Troy (+8.76) | 29% | |||||||||
| 11/14/2026 | Troy | #67 | @ South Alabama | 4-2 | L | South Alabama (-6.50) | 34% | |||||||||
| 11/21/2026 | #94 | Georgia Southern | 3-4 | @ Troy | L | Troy (+4.84) | 38% | |||||||||
| 11/28/2026 | Troy | #124 | @ Arkansas State | 3-4 | L | Arkansas State (-7.66) | 32% | |||||||||
PROJECTED RECORD 15-736.2% 26-626.3% 34-822.4% 47-59.4% 53-94.0% 68-41.6% Chance of winning all 6 remaining games: 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||